buschwhaked
NAXJA Forum User
- Location
- Colorado Springs
So, McCain keeps touting his judgment on the Surge and the illusion that it was the cause of the reduction in violence we saw in Iraq. To me, this just goes to show how easily people will make simple associations and how much McCain has pounced on that fact. Which to me, is lying to the American people. I'm also disappointed in my own party for not pointing this out. Now, I tested this theory the other day at work with my LT and turns out he wrote a paper on it at West Point. He's a stout Republican but agreed with me on this: The success of the Surge was not a result of more troops on the ground.
Here's my argument and keep in mind, I was there for the Surge (all 15 months of it):
The reduction of the violence in Iraq was the result of three pinnacle occurrences that would have happened whether we surged or not.
1) By late 2006, the sectarian war in Iraq was at a stand still due to the fact that there were almost no mixed Sunni Shia neighborhoods left. Clear lines had been drawn and all the Iraqi's knew where they belonged and where they didn't. This resulted in the in-fighting being brought to a stand still.
2) In early 2007, Muqtada Al Sadr has lost control of his own Shia militia, the Mahdi Army. He saw the "surge" as an oppurtunity to clean house. He declared a ceasefire which shut down all offensive operations by the Mahdi Army. Those that continued to fight were targeted and captured by us. In the mean time, he shored up his political standing within the Iraqi government, gaining more and more political power. We helped him.
3) The most significant event was the Sunni tribal "Awakening." This occured not because they like Americans, but because they saw that their areas had been purged of all Shia's and now Al Qaeda was continuing operations in their area, killing their fellow tribesmen. Growing weary of this, they decided to rid AQIZ from their area by using us to accomplish this. It's not that they liked us, they just liked AQIZ less. This "Awakening" started out west in Ramadi, not Baghdad where we actually surged our forces. This event would have occured whether the Surge happened or not.
All three of these events combined brought about a tangible drop in violence, however artificial. And none of them had anything to do with the surge.
In conclusion, I think the American's have been lied to about the "ground truth" by our politicians, and McCain is taking advantage of this lie and running with it. This, to me raises character concerns.
Here's my argument and keep in mind, I was there for the Surge (all 15 months of it):
The reduction of the violence in Iraq was the result of three pinnacle occurrences that would have happened whether we surged or not.
1) By late 2006, the sectarian war in Iraq was at a stand still due to the fact that there were almost no mixed Sunni Shia neighborhoods left. Clear lines had been drawn and all the Iraqi's knew where they belonged and where they didn't. This resulted in the in-fighting being brought to a stand still.
2) In early 2007, Muqtada Al Sadr has lost control of his own Shia militia, the Mahdi Army. He saw the "surge" as an oppurtunity to clean house. He declared a ceasefire which shut down all offensive operations by the Mahdi Army. Those that continued to fight were targeted and captured by us. In the mean time, he shored up his political standing within the Iraqi government, gaining more and more political power. We helped him.
3) The most significant event was the Sunni tribal "Awakening." This occured not because they like Americans, but because they saw that their areas had been purged of all Shia's and now Al Qaeda was continuing operations in their area, killing their fellow tribesmen. Growing weary of this, they decided to rid AQIZ from their area by using us to accomplish this. It's not that they liked us, they just liked AQIZ less. This "Awakening" started out west in Ramadi, not Baghdad where we actually surged our forces. This event would have occured whether the Surge happened or not.
All three of these events combined brought about a tangible drop in violence, however artificial. And none of them had anything to do with the surge.
In conclusion, I think the American's have been lied to about the "ground truth" by our politicians, and McCain is taking advantage of this lie and running with it. This, to me raises character concerns.