Will a stock outside carrier hold a 32/33" spare?

Hi all,
I have a stock outside rear spare carrier on my '90; it's the one that bolts to both the bumper and rear quarter panel. Will this carrier suport a 32" or 33" MT/R mounted on a cheapie alloy rim?
I've heard comments going both ways, so I'm not sure. I know I don't want it bouncing off the back somewhere down the highway though. It needs to stay on the rear, as we need the cargo space out back, and my wife can't sling it off/on the roof.

If the carrier can support it, that'd be great. If not, then can it be beefed up to do the job? What's the most common failure point for these things, and can they be reinforced?

Thanks!

the stock carrier can hold up to a 31" tire. If you want something bigger, its better to just get an aftermarket tire carrier.

I would like to get an aftermarket one, but I can't afford it. Everything seems to be a bumper/carrier, and $500+.....

Is there some way to reinforce what I have? What is the failure point? If it is the actual hinges, I don't think I can do much about that. But if it's the attachment point, perhaps I could beef it up with additional bracing/plates/whatever?

the failure is the attachment point and the latch point.

moreso, it's actually the fact that they attach to the stock bumper, which is rather flimsy. if you were to make a reinforcement bracket that came from the body to the lower hinge, and another from the body to the latch, you should be able to call it good.

of course, you really should just buy an aftermarket one when you get the $$$ for one.

I wouldn't trust a stock carrier to hold the weight.
My semi stock carrier separated at the ball-hinges ('88 XJ), while swinging the carrier out.
I can't remember what size tire I had on there--as I recall, it was a 33". In addition, I think I had my 5gallon gas can mounted there as well:greensmok
When it came loose, instead of jumping back, I tried to catch it--not good for the back!

I dont trust mine with a 31, When offroad I run a ratchet strap from my tire to my rear roof rack rail as a precaution