Home prices and Californians

[Fergie]

First off, this is a rnat, and not directed at anyone personally, so chill.

Secondly, all you Californians moving east...GO HOME, WE DON'T WANT YOU!

So what brought all this about? The wife and I go looking for a house down in the Tucson area. When we ahd first looked about a year ago, the home we were looking at were in the low 100s. Now, the same homes are over 200k.

Why? Because all the freakin tards from CA are coming to AZ, NM, CO, UT and various other non-Schwarz states and dropping wads of cash, artificially increasing the value of homes.

Do these people realize that when they come in and make an offer of $10,000 over the asking price, it kinda screws the rest of us?

Do you also realize that the average cost of a SINGLE FAMILY house in Flagstaff, is well over $350,000?!?!

Jumpin' Jesus on a pogo stick!

Go back to CA, or just pass right on through to the EC and leave the normal(well somewhat) people in the surrounding states alone!!!

Fergie

[XJ_ranger]

phoenix has exploded even in my lifetime... my uncle and i go down there from time to time and he always says "this used to be open hills where i used to wheel my CJ" and we had been driving inside phoenix city limits for about 1 hour?

he lives in casa grande

all the kali-forn-ia-n's are moving to nevada too....

personaly - i moved to Nebraska... just to be different

[Fergie]

phoenix has exploded even in my lifetime... my uncle and i go down there from time to time and he always says "this used to be open hills where i used to wheel my CJ" and we had been driving inside phoenix city limits for about 1 hour?

he lives in casa grande

all the kali-forn-ia-n's are moving to nevada too....

personaly - i moved to Nebraska... just to be different
My Dad says the same thing about Tucson as he grew up there in the 60s.

Places that are jam packed full of houses used to be where he hunted and raced their dune buggies.

Fergie

[xjcrawlr]

I bought my house in El Mirage (next to Sun City), in Oct 03 for $108,000


Guy across the street with the same house as me sold his in 8 days.............for $230,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[GSequoia]

Don't worry Fergie - I have no plans on leaving Southern California. And even if I were to (which would be quite a ways down the line) I can guarentee you it won't be Arizona!

[JTBOSCO]

First Of All, All The "tards" Leaving Ca. Had To Come From Some Other Useless State First.so They Are Just Going Back Home

[JeepFreak21]

First off, this is a rnat, and not directed at anyone personally, so chill.

Secondly, all you Californians moving east...GO HOME, WE DON'T WANT YOU!

So what brought all this about? The wife and I go looking for a house down in the Tucson area. When we ahd first looked about a year ago, the home we were looking at were in the low 100s. Now, the same homes are over 200k.

Why? Because all the freakin tards from CA are coming to AZ, NM, CO, UT and various other non-Schwarz states and dropping wads of cash, artificially increasing the value of homes.

Do these people realize that when they come in and make an offer of $10,000 over the asking price, it kinda screws the rest of us?

Do you also realize that the average cost of a SINGLE FAMILY house in Flagstaff, is well over $350,000?!?!

Jumpin' Jesus on a pogo stick!

Go back to CA, or just pass right on through to the EC and leave the normal(well somewhat) people in the surrounding states alone!!!

Fergie


Hey, us NorCal people feel the same way about the bastids from the bay area!
Billy

[CRASH]

You should move to Mexico. You can pick up all manner of affordable housing. Oh, btw, return the favor and move there illegally.

Seriously, unless this country confronts our growth problems head on, there will be no place left to live.

And, please note, California has never been a net exporter of people. We gain an average of 600,000 residents a year. 90% of that is due to emigration, not natural reproduction among residents.

Moral of the story: We're taking in more 'tards than we are sending out. :lecture:

CRASH



First off, this is a rnat, and not directed at anyone personally, so chill.

Secondly, all you Californians moving east...GO HOME, WE DON'T WANT YOU!

So what brought all this about? The wife and I go looking for a house down in the Tucson area. When we ahd first looked about a year ago, the home we were looking at were in the low 100s. Now, the same homes are over 200k.

Why? Because all the freakin tards from CA are coming to AZ, NM, CO, UT and various other non-Schwarz states and dropping wads of cash, artificially increasing the value of homes.

Do these people realize that when they come in and make an offer of $10,000 over the asking price, it kinda screws the rest of us?

Do you also realize that the average cost of a SINGLE FAMILY house in Flagstaff, is well over $350,000?!?!

Jumpin' Jesus on a pogo stick!

Go back to CA, or just pass right on through to the EC and leave the normal(well somewhat) people in the surrounding states alone!!!

Fergie

[Matthew Currie]

It's not just out west, it's everywhere. Prices are crazy here in Vermont too. We can try to blame the New Yorkers and Jerseyites who are flocking up here, and no doubt that's a part of it, but it's really just the way the market goes. When interest rates are low and prices are climbing, there's no better investment. There's a huge real estate bubble owing to the low interest rates. Now, as interest rates start up, you'd think things would cool off, but now people are in a rush to buy before they go even higher, so it won't stop for a while, I think. Eventually a few people will find that they paid max for their property, and that interest rates aren't going any higher, and the bubble will collapse, at least a little. Until then, it's going to be crazy.

Now what I can't understand is that no matter what you now own, and what you want, whatever you want is twice the value of whatever you own. I could decide to sell my feudal castle* and move into a little beach house and somehow it would turn out that castles are a drug on the market and the inspectors would find rising damp in the north dungeon, and I'd still end up paying out.

*footnote: this is hypothetical. Alas, my forebears were a bunch of Indiana farmers and assorted Connecticut Yankees - no fiefdoms lurking back there.

[Lawn Cher']

Seriously, unless this country confronts our growth problems head on, there will be no place left to live.

x2

We moved from NJ to MO less than 2 years ago... there was no more affordable housing left in NJ and now there is a housing boom going on here too. I'm not complaining, we made money on our old house and our new one is appreciating rapidly. I just feel sorry for my friends who are a little behind the wave. I was fortunate enough to inherit money and jump into the real estate game immediately after college which put me that much further ahead, but for those looking to buy their first house now, I wish you luck. It appears to be happening all over the country, and Mr Currie's explanation makes sense.

[Fergie]

First Of All, All The "tards" Leaving Ca. Had To Come From Some Other Useless State First.so They Are Just Going Back Home

Yes, the states are Sonora, Chihuahua, and other such 'southern' states.
And don't forget to read the first part of my post there.


Billy- Arent you in the real estate business yourself?

Andy- While CA may be importing more than you export, take a look at who the exportees are. You'll be the minority very soon.

Matthew- You are correct in saying that the housing market is crazy everywhere. The market has been going like a raped ape for several years now, and through the grapevine, it won't last much longer. Some say the summer, some say the new year is when it will end, but there will be an awful lot of unhappy investors soon, and some very happy buyers.

Fergie

[CRASH]

Si, senor.



Yes, the states are Sonora, Chihuahua, and other such 'southern' states.
And don't forget to read the first part of my post there.


Billy- Arent you in the real estate business yourself?

Andy- While CA may be importing more than you export, take a look at who the exportees are. You'll be the minority very soon.

Matthew- You are correct in saying that the housing market is crazy everywhere. The market has been going like a raped ape for several years now, and through the grapevine, it won't last much longer. Some say the summer, some say the new year is when it will end, but there will be an awful lot of unhappy investors soon, and some very happy buyers.

Fergie

[Glenn B]

It happens everywhere. Just the way it goes when you live someplace tons of others wanna live at. :(

My county has the highest median house prices in Washington State. The house prices do not bother me.... it the damned tax assesor and what they want. That is where they get ya.

[88flexj]

First off, this is a rnat, and not directed at anyone personally, so chill.

Secondly, all you Californians moving east...GO HOME, WE DON'T WANT YOU!

So what brought all this about? The wife and I go looking for a house down in the Tucson area. When we ahd first looked about a year ago, the home we were looking at were in the low 100s. Now, the same homes are over 200k.

Why? Because all the freakin tards from CA are coming to AZ, NM, CO, UT and various other non-Schwarz states and dropping wads of cash, artificially increasing the value of homes.

Do these people realize that when they come in and make an offer of $10,000 over the asking price, it kinda screws the rest of us?

Do you also realize that the average cost of a SINGLE FAMILY house in Flagstaff, is well over $350,000?!?!

Jumpin' Jesus on a pogo stick!

Go back to CA, or just pass right on through to the EC and leave the normal(well somewhat) people in the surrounding states alone!!!

Fergie



Cry me a river! The average cost of a new home in my area is $800,000. The new home you want is only $200,000? Arizona here we come!!! :sunshine:

[Alaskaflyr]

Andy- While CA may be importing more than you export, take a look at who the exportees are. You'll be the minority very soon.

Fergie

I think very soon is now. I'm here due to being in the military and stationed here. 1 more year then hopefully I can move back home to Alaska!

I saw a bumper sticker the other day

"Cover me, I'm changing lanes"

Gary

[KingOfTheHill]

well i dont know what to tell you... their building homes EVERYWHERE here in CA and we dont want them here either, so where are they coming from? THOUSANDS of new homes in just my valley going up, clogging our roads, and traffic everywhere...

so where are all of them coming from? in the Santa Clarita Vallley in southern california... you cant even get a home for under 350,000 and a million dollar home is notthing to brag about... my home is 750k and its nothing in this valley.... so where are all these people coming from? with what money? 2,500bux a month is LOW to live here... so all you TARDS over there can keep out of CA cause were already over populated...

JOe

[FarmerMatt]

This is a very real & concerning problem for us aggies also. The housing boom is putting a huge squeeze on land prices & pricing the "farmer" right out of the equation. I looked at some property adjacent to me that came up for sale a month ago. It's perfect, several large shops, small house, & a scale with 90 acres of Thompson vinyard. It also comes with an asking price of $1,080,000. No matter how you pencil it out it'll never pay for it self through farming. So you have to be an investor who is extremely bullish on the market & hope that the price goes up from here. This same property, a year ago, would have been worth maybe half this. I ain't taking that risk.

I've got a bad feeling that this whole over valued land & housing is going to burst & all those nice home equity loans are going to start biting people in the butt, big time! I laugh out loud every time I here those commercials, "consolidate debt". The newest one is my favorite, "corperate credit". Get up to $1,000,000 of corperate credit... We think the US has huge ammounts of people filing for bankruptcy now? Give it 2 years, if it lasts that long. If not than I'm cashing out & moving in with Fergie.

Matt

[Roll-over]

Secondly, all you Californians moving east...GO HOME, WE DON'T WANT YOU!

Fergie

LMAO!!! Where's border patrol when you need 'em!?!?!?!

[CRASH]

Farming is SO 19th century.

CRASH

This is a very real & concerning problem for us aggies also. The housing boom is putting a huge squeeze on land prices & pricing the "farmer" right out of the equation. I looked at some property adjacent to me that came up for sale a month ago. It's perfect, several large shops, small house, & a scale with 90 acres of Thompson vinyard. It also comes with an asking price of $1,080,000. No matter how you pencil it out it'll never pay for it self through farming. So you have to be an investor who is extremely bullish on the market & hope that the price goes up from here. This same property, a year ago, would have been worth maybe half this. I ain't taking that risk.

I've got a bad feeling that this whole over valued land & housing is going to burst & all those nice home equity loans are going to start biting people in the butt, big time! I laugh out loud every time I here those commercials, "consolidate debt". The newest one is my favorite, "corperate credit". Get up to $1,000,000 of corperate credit... We think the US has huge ammounts of people filing for bankruptcy now? Give it 2 years, if it lasts that long. If not than I'm cashing out & moving in with Fergie.

Matt

[Boatwrench]

Fergie,
Move over neighbor...the wife and I are retiring in Gold Canyon, between Phoenix and Florence Junction...or maybe down in Catalina...why...well the tards moving into San Francisco from the east coast (that means everything east of the Sierra's) have jacked up the housing so much we can't afford to live in the house anymore. The house we live in sold in 1956 for $13K and it is now worth over $1.5M (it's not mine, it's my in-laws).It happens.
Tom

[Ludakris]

this is definetly a big problem everywhere, and the housing builders are just feeding the insanity. In MD, I had to move 1hr away from where I work (30 miles) to afford a 60yo house for 250K! I am glad i got in last year, my house has already gone up 60K, and they are building 500K houses across the street. they dont build 1500 sq ft houses anymore, now they are 3000sp ft and $500K or a 2600sq ft town house for $300K... the american dream is hard to come by, I dont know if me and the wife will be able to afford kids, child care is rediculous... the only choice we have now is to stay in the house as long as possible and hope the market slows down or wages take off...

[Lawn Cher']

Farming is SO 19th century.

CRASH

Somebody's gotta grow the biodiesel feedstock crops! Go Farmer Go!

:farmer: :worship:

[Alaskaflyr]

Here is a thought,

Maybe these "Tards" as we call them are buying up AZ property and NV property because their Pychic told them the big earth quake is coming, and if they wan't the new beach front property they should buy now??

[Danno]

I bought a small condo in San Bernardino so that my kids would have a place to live that they could afford while going to grad school. $67k got a nice one. Now they are selling for $160k for the same thing three years later. I'm just afraid that the market will collapse by the time Julie graduates in four years. :rattle: My bro-in-law bought his latest house ten years ago for $175k and now they sell for $365k+. It's totally insane. You guys want affordable housing, come to Tennessee as $350k builds a mansion.

[Lawn Cher']

the american dream is hard to come by, I dont know if me and the wife will be able to afford kids, child care is rediculous... the only choice we have now is to stay in the house as long as possible and hope the market slows down or wages take off...

Ah, that'd be nice, if wages caught up to the middle-class cost of living! My wife has the baby bug... since I handle the bills, I say we'd be better off with a 2nd dog instead. But I guess as long as the upper class rich folks can fuel their hummers and yachts we should just be content, ya right. :rolleyes:

[casm]

Andy- While CA may be importing more than you export, take a look at who the exportees are. You'll be the minority very soon.

Already happened. In 2001, births of children considered to be Hispanic outnumbered all other groups combined (source (http://www.dhs.ca.gov/hisp/chs/OHIR/tables/datafiles/vsofca/0112.pdf)). This trend has been continuing steadily since.

And for my part... I'm looking at fleeing as well. As it stands I have no hope of ever being able to afford a house here anywhere that I would actually want to live, and am tired of watching this state go down the crapper while there's bugger-all anyone can do about it.

BTW: Fergie, if we're able to shoot our way across the border, can we have refugee status in AZ? ;)

[xjcrawlr]

Two major developers from Cali are pending approval of a 400,000 home master planned community in the desert west of Phoenix. Its going to be bigger than the cities of Mesa, Glendale, and Peoria. I cant wait for the population to exceed 5 million!

[Lawn Cher']

Who would want to live in the desert? Next they'll be building on the moon!

[xjcrawlr]

AAAHHHH!!




Belive it or not there is a company selling plots of land on the MOON!

http://www.lunarlandowner.com/

check it out.

[Fergie]

Sounds like hit a real tender spot among a lot of us.

My parents bought a small house in Flag about 20 years ago for around 60K. They could barley afford it then, but it was worth it. Now, their house is worth over 200K, but its a good thing they don't plan on selling it any time soon.

My in-laws moved from Hereford, MD about 5 years ago to Sierra Vista. They sold a huge house in MD for around 300K, and were able to buy a fairway view lot and build a new house for around 200K. The same house now goes for close to 1MIL with the fairway view.

My biggest irritation is that the housing market is artificially inflated, and I can't wait to see folks home values drop to half of what they were and normal folks can afford to live again.

How does cost of living compare to wages in CA? In Flag, the cost of lviing is higher than the median household income.

Fergie

PS- All NAXJAns are welcome at my place, and the rest of AZ...I love double standards.

[Lawn Cher']

I don't understand... what gives them the right to sell those lunar plots? Did they somehow lay claim to the moon? Rediculous!

[xjcrawlr]

I'm still reading the site to get more info.



You had no idea how right you were, did you?

[Lawn Cher']

You had no idea how right you were, did you?

Exactly... and I thought that "name a star" gimmick was stupid too, just for the record.

[JeepFreak21]

Billy- Arent you in the real estate business yourself?


It's true... and I live in an apartment! :mad:
Billy

[RichP]

Sounds like hit a real tender spot among a lot of us.

My parents bought a small house in Flag about 20 years ago for around 60K. They could barley afford it then, but it was worth it. Now, their house is worth over 200K, but its a good thing they don't plan on selling it any time soon.

My in-laws moved from Hereford, MD about 5 years ago to Sierra Vista. They sold a huge house in MD for around 300K, and were able to buy a fairway view lot and build a new house for around 200K. The same house now goes for close to 1MIL with the fairway view.

My biggest irritation is that the housing market is artificially inflated, and I can't wait to see folks home values drop to half of what they were and normal folks can afford to live again.

How does cost of living compare to wages in CA? In Flag, the cost of lviing is higher than the median household income.

Fergie

PS- All NAXJAns are welcome at my place, and the rest of AZ...I love double standards.

I have actually seen that happen, IBM had a big plant in Franklin Lakes NJ. Couple of other big companies also had big offices that supported the IBM site. IBM closed the building [5 stories w/80+ acres of parking for over 5,000 employees]. The home owners were walking away from their mortages as the home values droped from 1Million for a 3500sqft dutch colonial to $150,000 literally overnite following IBM's announcement. We had just moved to PA and the former bank I used in NJ found itself the new owners of over 2,000 homes. One of my guys in the guard was a loan officer and he had homeowners walk in and drop the keys to the house on his desk and walk out w/o saying a word.
As for all those homes they are building in the desert, where is the water being stolen from and where are people going to work...
Might be I may give that property outside cancun a second look...

[xjcrawlr]

As for all those homes they are building in the desert, where is the water being stolen from and where are people going to work...


I too would like to know that. There is a "Field of Dreams" mentality around here........"Build it and they will come".

Rumor is the state is going to stop giving all our water to California (they currently get 65% of the water in AZ).

[Bent]

First Of All, All The "tards" Leaving Ca. Had To Come From Some Other Useless State First.so They Are Just Going Back Home

What an understatment!! At least they have JOBS, when they F^(%ing got here they were all on welfare. :rattle: Before you cry about high priced housing you ought to find out what it is.:twak:


Hugs and Kisses,

TIM
Third generation born and raised; Redlands, California.

[KingOfTheHill]

with flagstaff vs So Cal.... i know a little...

my g/f's dad coached UCLA football 2 seasons ago (was there 10 years) and was making 110k a year... bought his home 15 years prior in a nice neighborhood for 220k but just SOLD the house for 615k and moved to Flagstaff to coach for NAU lumberjacks.... his pay is now 70k a year and he just bought a beautiful home for 315k.... so you can look at those figures of a real person and think any way you want...

JOe

[5-90]

Look at the whole "dot-bomb" debacle, and that's been the more recent cause of runaway inflation of home values (I think. I still regard "economics" as a batch of smoke and mirrors - a cross between a group hallucination and a work of pure fiction. It posits that there is an intrinsic value to monetary units - there has not been, here in the US, since we were taken off the gold standard in 1933. The closest thing there is to a monetary standard anymore is a "petroleum base," which has the intrinsic flaw of being an expendable - and expeded! - resource. More on that at another time.)

Since so many people were making far more money than was healthy, they were able to drive prices up until they - and only they - could afford what they wanted. Add in all the lawyers, doctors, and other "professionals" out here, and there's quite a lot of money available for pricing and purchasing - if you're the one making it.

Meanwhile, the rest of us - what could be called "support staff," are being priced right out of the area.

With regards to my Arizona neighbours - please don't make me shoot back when I'm leaving. I'm not a native Californian (Hoosier by birth, Boilermaker by the Grace of God!) and I do intent to return to civilised America someday. My wife's attitudes are very much not Californian - and she wants to leave almost as bad as I do.

Why am I still here? FA for school is easier to get here, so I'm finishing as much school as I can before I leave. Since several million people here are cashing in on the "Welfare State," I figured I might as well get something back. Unlike most of them, I've actually paid into the system before I started collecting...

Right now, I'm thinking either Northern Arizona (it's cooler up there,) or buying a decommissioned missile site - with several feet of overhead insulation and a two-foot-thick front door. Stay to the marked path, please, we lost four customers to the minefield last week...

5-90

[CRASH]

I too would like to know that. There is a "Field of Dreams" mentality around here........"Build it and they will come".

Rumor is the state is going to stop giving all our water to California (they currently get 65% of the water in AZ).

That is just patently incorrect.

Collectively California, Arizona and Nevada have rights to 7.5 million acre feet of Colorado River water.

California has rights to 4.4 million acre-feet of water. 3.1 of which is dedicated to agriculture in the Imperial and Coachella Valleys. Arizona has rights to about 2.9 million acre-feet, Nevada has 300,000 AF.

The reason we have so much is that we claimed it before Arizona. Arizona claimed their's before Nevada.

California uses NONE of Arizona's apportionment. Until recently, we were using up to 4.8 MAF, but we have been weened off of this excess by the recent drought and the fact that the Upper Basin is beginning to use all of their apportionment (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah).

In essence, we have all of the water we need for massive growth above and beyond what we are experiencing, if we are willing to sacrifice agriculture in the process. Farmers don't typically go down without a fight, but the almighty dollar usually helps "settle their hash".

Why sweat to death in the desert sun when you can sell your water right for more than you can make growing crops?

CRASH

[JeepFreak21]

That is just patently incorrect.

Collectively California, Arizona and Nevada have rights to 7.5 million acre feet of Colorado River water.

California has rights to 4.4 million acre-feet of water. 3.1 of which is dedicated to agriculture in the Imperial and Coachella Valleys. Arizona has rights to about 2.9 million acre-feet, Nevada has 300,000 AF.

The reason we have so much is that we claimed it before Arizona. Arizona claimed their's before Nevada.

California uses NONE of Arizona's apportionment. Until recently, we were using up to 4.8 MAF, but we have been weened off of this excess by the recent drought and the fact that the Upper Basin is beginning to use all of their apportionment (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah).

In essence, we have all of the water we need for massive growth above and beyond what we are experiencing, if we are willing to sacrifice agriculture in the process. Farmers don't typically go down without a fight, but the almighty dollar usually helps "settle their hash".

Why sweat to death in the desert sun when you can sell your water right for more than you can make growing crops?

CRASH

http://www.slicky.net/smilies/rolleyes.gif What're you, some kinda expert?


























Billy :D

[Paul S]

Sounds like you're a bit of a sore loser. Buying property is a gamble. For most of us it involves sinking every cent we can come up with to buy a home. Had you taken that risk last year, you'd probably be sitting on your porch watching all those Californians move in around you, loving your new found equity & all those Californians that made it possible.
Instead of complaining about the Californians that are "artifically" raising property values, why don't you complain to your fellow Arizonians (sp?) that are selling their homes for too much, I'm sure they'd see it your way & lower their prices accordingly. Speaking of which, what exactly is a fair price for a home?

Paul

[Ivan]

Sounds like you're a bit of a sore loser. Buying property is a gamble. For most of us it involves sinking every cent we can come up with to buy a home. Had you taken that risk last year, you'd probably be sitting on your porch watching all those Californians move in around you, loving your new found equity & all those Californians that made it possible.
Instead of complaining about the Californians that are "artifically" raising property values, why don't you complain to your fellow Arizonians (sp?) that are selling their homes for too much, I'm sure they'd see it your way & lower their prices accordingly. Speaking of which, what exactly is a fair price for a home?

Paul

Ding, ding, ding.... we have a winner...

http://members.cox.net/n2jeeping/clapping.jpg

[Fergie]

Sounds like you're a bit of a sore loser. Buying property is a gamble. For most of us it involves sinking every cent we can come up with to buy a home. Had you taken that risk last year, you'd probably be sitting on your porch watching all those Californians move in around you, loving your new found equity & all those Californians that made it possible.
Instead of complaining about the Californians that are "artifically" raising property values, why don't you complain to your fellow Arizonians (sp?) that are selling their homes for too much, I'm sure they'd see it your way & lower their prices accordingly. Speaking of which, what exactly is a fair price for a home?

Paul
Not a sore loser....just extremely jaded.

As for the neighbors that are selling too high, I have a problem with that too, but the only folks that are looking at home in the area are second home owners from...CALIFORNIA. People always try to do what is best for them as opposed to a more philanthropic view. And what makes you think that my wife and I arent sinking every cent we have into a home? It is a gamble, but a good, worthwhile investment, and you dont throw money away like you do when renting.

Fair price for a home...hmmm...

For a well built, single family, 3 bed 2 bath garaged home, I'd say somewhere in the 150k-175k range. Right now in the Tucson area though, you cant touch a 2bed 1 bath townhome for that much though.

The way I think about it too, and this could be incorrect and flawed, but CA has always been desireable due to climate and location and such, and prices have always been high. AZ hasnt always been like that, and I tend to be narrow minded in my thinking and have lots of double standards when it comes to what I think is fair or not.

Anyway, my thoughts are like assholes....lots of hot air.

Fergie

[FarmerMatt]

That is just patently incorrect.

Collectively California, Arizona and Nevada have rights to 7.5 million acre feet of Colorado River water.

California has rights to 4.4 million acre-feet of water. 3.1 of which is dedicated to agriculture in the Imperial and Coachella Valleys. Arizona has rights to about 2.9 million acre-feet, Nevada has 300,000 AF.

The reason we have so much is that we claimed it before Arizona. Arizona claimed their's before Nevada.

California uses NONE of Arizona's apportionment. Until recently, we were using up to 4.8 MAF, but we have been weened off of this excess by the recent drought and the fact that the Upper Basin is beginning to use all of their apportionment (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah).

In essence, we have all of the water we need for massive growth above and beyond what we are experiencing, if we are willing to sacrifice agriculture in the process. Farmers don't typically go down without a fight, but the almighty dollar usually helps "settle their hash".

Why sweat to death in the desert sun when you can sell your water right for more than you can make growing crops?

CRASH

And, I might add, their hash is being settled as we speak...

[Captain Ron]

... fellow Arizonians (sp?) ...

Zoni's, I believe.

It's supply and demand folks. I'd like to see anyone here take their appraisal, throw it out the window, and sell for your original purchase price.

Arizona has been right behind California for a very long time. It really is nothing new. I seem to remember a major migration of retirees to Phoenix, Scotsdale, and Tuscon (and the Mob, remember that? My Uncle was the Mayor of Tuscon during this period...) from points east in the late 60's and thru the 70's that drove and sustained a major jump in values.

If you look at the challenges facing first time buyers 30 years ago, and compare them to today, the dead horse thing comes to mind.

I think you really ought to look at it this way, California is doing a huge favor to your net worth.

--ron

[JTBOSCO]

Well as a matter of fact Crash IS some what of an expert on the subject.

Crash...I knew it was just a matter of time before you chimed in..LOL!

[DrMoab]

I have a different problem...The housing market is going up up up right around here but RIGHT here its going down because of a new freeway they are talking about making. My brother sold us this house for a screaming deal...It was worth about 160K two years ago when we bought it....They just reassessed the property at 124K. We bought it from him for 120K. Its good for the taxes but I hope it goes back up when we decide to sell.

[Matthew Currie]

By the way, my wife just told me she heard from somewhere the prediction that the real estate market won't tank until mortgage rates go up to 6 percent. That's the magic number, folks, and you heard it here. So keep your eye on the rates and see if you can sell when the rates are up around 5 1/2. Or maybe you should wait until they're 5 3/4.... The great investor's dream is to be the second-to-last sucker in the chain.

[CRASH]

And, I might add, their hash is being settled as we speak...

Tough for a guy netting $200 an acre growing alfalfa in the desert to resist selling water for $125 an AF to San Diego. Especially when it takes him 5 AF per acre to grow the crop.

$625 > $200.

Pretty hard for any ag to be on equal footing with municipalities when the economics look like that.

California, 100 million tards by 2050. That's our goal and we're sticking to it.

CRASH

[8Mud]

Left So. Cal in the mid 70`s, never missed it much. California, really started changing in the mid 60´s, a whole bunch of Easterners moved in, found paradise, got political and starting turning it into the same place, they ran away from in the first place.
Watched the old VA hospital sink into the ground during the 72 quake, then a couple of years later, somebody doze all the surrounding hills flat on top and build a thousand houses (right on top of the San Andreas fault). Figured things were going from bad to worse.
Our old homestead burnt up in a brush fire and we sold it to the city as a wildlife area. Heard it was a super market parking lot now. Built right on top of the only year round water (spring) in many miles. The spring was deverted into the city sewage system, so much for the wildlife.
California lost it´s roots, used to be pretty western and Republican. Can´t really blame, the old timers, for wanting to get the heck out.

[AzRick]

My house that I paid $50K for 10 years ago is going on the market tomorrow for $162,500 (3bdrm, 1 bath, 936 sq ft).

I'm selling because we need a bigger house.

The neighborhood I was eyeing 8 months ago at 180,000-200,000, is now 250-300,000.

I was told it might be better to just rent for a while and let the bubble burst, but I'm not so sure thats the way to go. The general (long-term) trend for real estate is always up, even after the bubble bursts. I hate to pass up on the 250k house that will be worth 500k in 10 years.

Maybe now would be a good time to move to Moab...........

Rick

[CRASH]

There are hundreds of pools in MOAB.

Oh wait, that's right, the chems have eaten your flesh. Nevermind.

CRASH

[Lawn Cher']

Zoni's, I believe.

Shall I make the Zamboni quip again?

[Boatwrench]

Rick,
The bubble won't burst.
Tom

[Captain Ron]

Shall I make the Zamboni quip again?

Let's just leave it as is, where is... For now.

--ron

[JeepFreak21]

Rick,
The bubble won't burst.
Tom

The lady I have been working with (new home sales real estate office) has been at the same company, doing the same thing for 9 years. She said it's been about 7 years since she's had to sell a house and every year people tell her that the bubble's about to burst.
Billy

[Lupine]

California, 100 million tards by 2050. That's our goal and we're sticking to it.

CRASH

PLEASE tell me we won't still be here in 2050.

For those data geeks:
http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/phc-t2/tab03.pdf

[CRASH]

We could always sell out and move back to Slovakia. We'd be sultans.

CRASH

PLEASE tell me we won't still be here in 2050.

For those data geeks:
http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/phc-t2/tab03.pdf

[FarmerMatt]

We'd be sultans.

CRASH
Of swing?... Grooooovy

[Lupine]

We could always sell out and move back to Slovakia. We'd be sultans.

CRASH

Then you'd have to go to mass every Sunday again. Maybe even every day.

[CRASH]

Then you'd have to go to mass every Sunday again. Maybe even every day.

I'd start my own church.

Make predictions and such.

Fire and brimstone for good measure.

Pass the basket for Fernet money.

You know, your basic smoke and mirrors game.

CRASH

[theschwarz1]

Why? Because all the freakin tards from CA are coming to AZ, NM, CO, UT and various other non-Schwarz states and dropping wads of cash, artificially increasing the value of homes.


HEY![SIZE=7] Thers nothing wrong with us Schwarz's!! Just because my Schwarz is bigger than yours doesn't mean you gotta be hatin'!
Just try to use my name honorably...please!


J/K man! I hear ya. It's the same way up here in the Mountains of Pa!!! The answer is "Buy land now" because it will always increase, especially when the slickers move out of the cities and burbs! (Just like I dd but I bought an old farmhouse. I didnt go build a huge McMansion on someones hunitn spot)

[Darky]

I'm gettin outta the Corps comin in August and will be movin either to AZ, Ohio or the CA desert. I want to come back to Tucson once I get outta college and start workin there but I hope prices come down by then. If not then I may have to go and take over my uncle's rental. He always said that if I come back to Tucson he'll kick his tenant's out of the townhouse for me...:D

[woody]

You know, your basic smoke and mirrors game.

CRASH

Ah, sort of like real-estate?

I don't believe land & houses (or construction materials) are going to get any cheaper over the long-term. Do what you need to do in the present tense.

I'm thankful that we have our little place on 4 country acres... Room to grow things to eat; Mature timber that needs thinned, which will be used to help build and heat a shop; Topography for a 1/4 acre pond; Grazing mammals that are yummy...

Taxes are a continual headache... but here locally ours aren't too bad yet. (they keep going up though) What sux about the boom is that most municipalities leap all over the inflated value. For residential owners who don't plan to sell out, or borrow against it...it can be a burden. Worse for small agri folks...especially if they are lucky enough to own property in an unincorporated area that gets annexed.

[Matthew Currie]

I don't think the bubble will ever really burst, but it might go a little slack, or at least stop growing for a while. If you buy a house that's reasonably in line with the market, that you can afford to pay for, and that you can live in, you'll make out all right, bubble or no. After all, if the whole market collapses, you still have a house to live in, and if you have to move, other places will be as collapsed as yours. And if you stay where you are, prices will always recover eventually. There are some people out there, though, who are stretching themselves very thin buying more than they need for more than they can afford on the assumption that they can pull out in the future and make a bundle of cash, and it won't take a big shift in the market to kill these investors. It happened in the late 80's, at least where I am. It's fine if you can afford to wait a few years, but if you pay too much and swing a big loan with the intention of reselling, you can find that the asking price you need to cover it all is more than the market will bear. More than a few people lost their shirts on investment properties that, if they'd lived in them for another 10 or 15 years, would have tripled in value.

[nitrogt101]

In Ventura County(southern california, north of LA) the average new 3k sq. foot house will go anywhere from $850k-1.3 million. They are nice houses, but a lot of the bigger developements are built like crap. It is hard to find a used single family home for under $500k in my neighborhood. I think the part of our lives this is effecting most, is the teenagers and college students. They(we) grow up here, go to school, but out of college will never be able to afford a house here, barely an apartment(rare). That is why more and more of us students are going to other states, it is just cheaper. For myself, I am going to college here, then will work for a few years living at home still, until I can afford an apartment or a house somewhere else. Ventura County is going to turn into old people who bought cheap, and young people who struck it rich somehow. hasta

[theschwarz1]

WOODY, you hit the nial on the head!

[Captain Ron]

In Ventura County(southern california, north of LA) the average new 3k sq. foot house will go anywhere from $850k-1.3 million. They are nice houses, but a lot of the bigger developements are built like crap. It is hard to find a used single family home for under $500k in my neighborhood. I think the part of our lives this is effecting most, is the teenagers and college students. They(we) grow up here, go to school, but out of college will never be able to afford a house here, barely an apartment(rare). That is why more and more of us students are going to other states, it is just cheaper. For myself, I am going to college here, then will work for a few years living at home still, until I can afford an apartment or a house somewhere else. Ventura County is going to turn into old people who bought cheap, and young people who struck it rich somehow. hasta
At the risk of blowing one of SoCals best kept secrets, where else can you buy, even today, within a mile of the beach for under a half M?

I think you would feel very different if you lived in Newport Beach.

I got this little jewel in PH, 2 blocks from the beach for 310K, 1200 sq ft, newly renovated, 3 br, 2 bath, attached garage, 2 houses down from where I grew up saying pretty much what you are.

I'm unloaded other than that and some long term commercial right now. The fun starts in 24-36 months or so. Got my eye on a few...

...Taxes are a continual headache... but here locally ours aren't too bad yet. (they keep going up though) What sux about the boom is that most municipalities leap all over the inflated value. For residential owners who don't plan to sell out, or borrow against it...it can be a burden...

Ahhh... the benefits of the socialist bear state. Who is that Warren Buffet guy anyways? Doesn't he understand anything about fairness? :D

Fixed costs baby, I can deal!

--ron

[Ludakris]

Looks like its not only housing prices.. the same thing is happening to the covetted (by some) Dana 44... will the price gouging ever stop?

http://www.naxja.org/classifieds/showproduct.php?product=145&sort=1&cat=2&page=1