Spending a fair amount of time around race cars or street strip type cars, I've heard quite a few discussions about intake engine temp.
The easiest response to your question is, Yes.. This would make a difference.. but.. there is a very happy medium when it comes to intake temperature..
That is why they sell cool cans (ice boxes for intake tubes), intercooler NO2 coolers (for turbos) and (also recommend intake warmers for diesels that run in arctic temperatures, -20 and below Fahrenheit)..
It's a hard thing to figure out what intake temerature your specific engine runs the best in, and sadly it's a 15 degree spread..
Commonly while you are driving your intake temperature in spring, summer, fall and winter never tend to vary more than 15-20 degrees usually staying within the 15 degree span you've got as far as optimal intake temperature..
One way racers figure this out is through multiple sessions or long sessions at a dyno.. They install a intake temperature sensor in the intake tube, figure out what temperatures they're looking at and find the most performance at whichever termperature they're running at.. and from there they have a pretty decent figure to judge with.
In my honest opinion.. I think trying to figure out what your most optimal operating intake temperature to run at is, mostly a waste of time.
It's one of those things that most people don't notice, because they tend to run dry gas, octane boosters, injector cleaners, slick 50 fuel injector treatment, and other various dump in the tank products to make sure their car doesn't die in the winter months and just take the 2-3 mpg loss as a normal loss..
Another theory in regards to the loss in mileage is that in Winter, temperatures get colder.. Intake temps get colder.. Fuel becomes more dense and so does the air.. Therefore allowing a larger more dense combination of air/fuel mixture... This would seem like another commonly accepted solution and probably makes more sense than the first, but.. in turn this should note slight gains in torque and horsepower all across the range.. when I say slight I mean 1-3 hp..
The denser the charge of the air or the fuel the more of both it can fit in the cylinder and therefore the more power it can make.
The more power the motor makes the more fuel it uses..
I hope this helps.. I know it's a long reply, but.. You're making me think back through 8-10 years of learning..
Bill