Pinion bearings can be kind of iffy to change. I wouldn't do it on a hunch.
First off most times when they go bad the seal leaks, is your seal leaking?
I wiggle the yoke side to side, slap the yoke with the palm of my hand. You can feel the play if the bearings are very worn. Sometime it even clicks.
You can take the drive shaft out, the tires and drums off and slowly turn the yoke by hand. You may be able to feel the rumble.
While you have the drive shaft out you can inspect the u-joints.
Pop the cover off of the differential and inspect the gears (ring gear and pinion), the spider gears and the thrust washers.
Try prying up on the carrier (a rag and a pry bar), if it moves at all it is likely the carrier bearings are worn.
Try moving the axle shafts up with the drums off, check the seals for seepage. The axle bearings, in my experience are relatively loose anyways (more than the common few thousandths of play in other bearings), it can be hard for a novice to tell normal loose, from too loose. In and out play on the axles doesn't mean much in my experience.
Sound in the drive train can fool you. As often as not where you think you hear it and where it actually is aren't the same place. I've known veteran mechanics to change the wrong bearings, believing the sound to be coming from someplace it wasn't. I've gone down the wrong path many times chasing a noise in the drive train.